There's been a ton of discussion lately about the Vikings and the Lions and the posters on the Den have been a bit miffed about the positive press the Queens are getting while the Lions seem to get every "Joey must put up or else"type of article written. So after a LONG thread, I decided to chime in with my view of the Vikings season this year. Let's just say I have a very different view of their chances than most media outlets have...
Here's the problem I see looming with the Queens O this year - their big-play O will see a significant downturn in production. And yes, it's all related to losing Randy Moss.
If all you lost was Randy's production, it would be one thing, but you lose so much more...
- They lost the one receiver who demanded to be double teamed that they had. This double team freed up many other options on the field as a safety would always have to cheat toward Moss. That frees up the RB's lanes, puts the other WR's in single coverage against a #2 or 3 CB, and guarantees a TE will have a LB trying to cover them. Without Moss, all those formational advantages are gone, making the other players on the Queens that much easier to cover.
- Moss was Culpepper's safety blanket - Pepper knew with Moss out there if he was in trouble, he could chuck it deep and there was a good chance something good would happen. The threat of an INT was minimal as Moss could simply out jump nearly every defender for the ball. Heck, you even played him at CB in a few games to stop Hail Mary passes, and I even remember him intercepting one. Moss made CB's look silly on deep passes the way Barry Sanders used to make entire defenses look silly trying to stop him. Now you have no one who can even remotely come close to filling that role.
- Opposing teams game plans got a lot easier. Now, instead of having to create junk D's to account for Moss on every play, they can go back to playing a very conventional style of D. There's no more cramming to install a few D packages before a team plays the Queens. The Base D's will work.
- The Queens O has been big-play based for several years. In a previous post I mentioned that you take away the 7 big plays they had in the extra-point game, and the Queens had 56 plays for 195 yards (3.5 per play) in the rest of the game. How well do you think the Big Play O will work without it's best playmaker? I'd be nowhere near as well.
- Finally, the Queens replaced him with perennially underachieving Travis Taylor and a Rook with great speed, but horrible stats. Neither of these guys even comes close to holding Randy's jock. Yet somehow people in Minnesoter think there won't be a dropoff in Culpeppers stats.
Based on the huge impact to the O, plus the well described by other posters problems with your old D Vets, I have a very negative view about the Queens. Personally, I am picking the Queens as my 'Flop' team for 2005. I think they have the best chance to go from the playoffs to picking in the top 10 in next years draft of all the playoff teams. I see them being an injury to Culpepper away from a 49ers - Dolphins type year. And I see no way that Tice is coaching them in 2006. Mark my words, as I'll add them to my blog - 2005 will be a year to forget in ViQueen land...
Friday, July 15, 2005
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Digging through the dirt...
Well, I was a bit bored as I was reading through another thread tonight, and somehow made it over to Pro Football Reference.com and was lookiing through stats, when something very odd hit me. It happened when I saw the following stat lines:
G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
---+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
12 | 173 303 57.1 2178 7.2 11 6 | 41 229 1 |
11 | 151 270 55.9 1957 7.2 13 7 | 28 87 2 |
15 | 221 412 53.6 2489 6.0 13 15 | 44 199 2 |
---+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
14 | 215 429 50.1 2294 5.3 12 16 | 7 4 0 |
16 | 309 554 55.8 2880 5.2 17 22 | 30 86 0 |
16 | 274 489 56.0 3047 6.2 19 12 | 48 175 0 |
In case you were wondering, those were the first 3 years stats for Charlie Batch and then Joey Harrington. A few things stuck out at me when I looked thorugh them. So I decided to try to do an objective comparison between the two QB's - one who was loved until he got a huge contract, and one who is considered an enigma and received a huge contract from his first day with the team. Here is my take...
1 - Charlie's stats seemed to get slightly worse each year - his completion percentage went down each year, his yards per play and INT to TD ratio plateaued then went down. Joey's have seemed to improve each year.
I'd give the edge stats-wise to Joey, but not by much. Overall the numbers favor Charlie, but the downward trend was not a very promising sign
2 - Charlie missed a lot of games - 10 in 3 years. Joey has missed 2 - the first and last games of his rookie year.
Joey wins in a runaway here. Charlie seemed to get hurt if you breathed on him wrong, while Joey has really only missed one start since he got the starting job.
3 - Charlie's leading receivers each year were:
Year1 - Moore 82/983, Morton 69/1028, Crowell 25/464
Year 2 - Crowell 81/1338, Morton 80/1129, Sloan 47/591
Year 3 - Morton 61/788, Moore 40/434, Crowell 34/430
Joey's were:
Year 1 - Hakim 37/541, Schroeder 36/595, Anderson 25/322
Year 2 - Hakim 49/449, Schroeder 36/397, Rogers 22/243
Year 3 - Williams 54/817, Hakim 31/533, Streets 28/260
HUGE edge to Charlie. His receivers were considerably better during his first three years in Detroit - although we start to see in year 3 of Batch that the receivers are about to go into the tailspin that we have endured for the last several years.
4 - Charlie's running backs
Y1 - Sanders 343/1491
Y2 - Hill 144/542
Y3 - Stewart 339/1184
Joey's RBs
Y1 - Stewart 231/1021
Y2 - Bryson 158/606
Y3 - Jones 241/1133
Edge to Charlie but not by anywhere near as much as I would have thought. Having Barry back there his rookie year takes a huge load off any QB. If we were to extend this to year 4, I expect Joey to come out ahead because KJ's in for a monster year...
So through 4 categories, we split the tally pretty much evenly. Joey gets the advantage with things directly related to the QB's production and Charlie gets the edge with his teammates production. So why was Charlie adored and Joey reviled? Here comes the tiebreaker category...
5 - Team Win-Loss Records
Charlie Y1 - 5-11
Y2 - 8-8
Y3 - 9-7
Joey Y1 - 3-13
Y2 - 5-11
Y3 - 6-10
Edge to Charlie. Charlie's teams won 8 more games through his first 3 seasons than Joey's teams did (22 vs 14), although both were below .500 (Charlie 22-26, Joey 14-34).
Irregardless of why each player's teams won the number of games they did, Charlie is perceived as a winner, and Joey a loser by much of the fan base here in Detroit. So why is this the perception? When I look at the stats, it appears that Joey has been improving and carrying a lot more of the load, while Charlie had teammates that carried the load for him. Individual stats wise, it doesn't really seem to add up.
I think the answer is simple and relates to two things I previously mentioned - Salary and Record. Charlie got a huge contract just before the start of his third season, and a lot of people scratched their heads, and suddenly Charlie was no longer the Golden Boy - they wanted production to match his salary. The Lions went 9-7 and not too many people grumbled as they were grumbling more about the Paul Edinger FG that knocked the Lions out of the playoffs. The following season, most people thought he got the shaft by the M&M boys and got run out of town. As such, he is remembered by most Lions fans in a positive light.
Joey on the other hand was the 3rd pick in the draft, and signed a HUGE contract that goes along with that draft position. Never mind the situation and coaching he came into - joining a team that went 2-14 the year before, being told by his Y1 coach to throw it away or check down instead of taking the sack, playing with different WR's in seemingly every game (the only WR to play in all 16 games in a single one of Joey's seasons was Bill Schroeder in Joey's Y2 - think about that), and receivers who consistently drop the ball. Joey's fat contract means that the fans expect results, irregardless of the situation the player was thrust into.
And results in Detroit are centered around one thing - Wins.
Even if Joey and the Lions win 12 games this year, there will still be people calling for his head. It will take a minimum of two 10+ win seasons before the boo-birds would begin to die down - which would not suprisingly be when Joey's career W-L record would start to get back near .500. I'm expecting it to happen as I think that finally Joey will have a team around him this season for the entire season - something he hasn't had since he's been here. If this happens, and Joey's stats plateau while the team wins games, Joey will still take some criticism, but it will definitely be much less. Winning cures all ailments - even the perception of how good a QB is.
G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
---+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
12 | 173 303 57.1 2178 7.2 11 6 | 41 229 1 |
11 | 151 270 55.9 1957 7.2 13 7 | 28 87 2 |
15 | 221 412 53.6 2489 6.0 13 15 | 44 199 2 |
---+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
14 | 215 429 50.1 2294 5.3 12 16 | 7 4 0 |
16 | 309 554 55.8 2880 5.2 17 22 | 30 86 0 |
16 | 274 489 56.0 3047 6.2 19 12 | 48 175 0 |
In case you were wondering, those were the first 3 years stats for Charlie Batch and then Joey Harrington. A few things stuck out at me when I looked thorugh them. So I decided to try to do an objective comparison between the two QB's - one who was loved until he got a huge contract, and one who is considered an enigma and received a huge contract from his first day with the team. Here is my take...
1 - Charlie's stats seemed to get slightly worse each year - his completion percentage went down each year, his yards per play and INT to TD ratio plateaued then went down. Joey's have seemed to improve each year.
I'd give the edge stats-wise to Joey, but not by much. Overall the numbers favor Charlie, but the downward trend was not a very promising sign
2 - Charlie missed a lot of games - 10 in 3 years. Joey has missed 2 - the first and last games of his rookie year.
Joey wins in a runaway here. Charlie seemed to get hurt if you breathed on him wrong, while Joey has really only missed one start since he got the starting job.
3 - Charlie's leading receivers each year were:
Year1 - Moore 82/983, Morton 69/1028, Crowell 25/464
Year 2 - Crowell 81/1338, Morton 80/1129, Sloan 47/591
Year 3 - Morton 61/788, Moore 40/434, Crowell 34/430
Joey's were:
Year 1 - Hakim 37/541, Schroeder 36/595, Anderson 25/322
Year 2 - Hakim 49/449, Schroeder 36/397, Rogers 22/243
Year 3 - Williams 54/817, Hakim 31/533, Streets 28/260
HUGE edge to Charlie. His receivers were considerably better during his first three years in Detroit - although we start to see in year 3 of Batch that the receivers are about to go into the tailspin that we have endured for the last several years.
4 - Charlie's running backs
Y1 - Sanders 343/1491
Y2 - Hill 144/542
Y3 - Stewart 339/1184
Joey's RBs
Y1 - Stewart 231/1021
Y2 - Bryson 158/606
Y3 - Jones 241/1133
Edge to Charlie but not by anywhere near as much as I would have thought. Having Barry back there his rookie year takes a huge load off any QB. If we were to extend this to year 4, I expect Joey to come out ahead because KJ's in for a monster year...
So through 4 categories, we split the tally pretty much evenly. Joey gets the advantage with things directly related to the QB's production and Charlie gets the edge with his teammates production. So why was Charlie adored and Joey reviled? Here comes the tiebreaker category...
5 - Team Win-Loss Records
Charlie Y1 - 5-11
Y2 - 8-8
Y3 - 9-7
Joey Y1 - 3-13
Y2 - 5-11
Y3 - 6-10
Edge to Charlie. Charlie's teams won 8 more games through his first 3 seasons than Joey's teams did (22 vs 14), although both were below .500 (Charlie 22-26, Joey 14-34).
Irregardless of why each player's teams won the number of games they did, Charlie is perceived as a winner, and Joey a loser by much of the fan base here in Detroit. So why is this the perception? When I look at the stats, it appears that Joey has been improving and carrying a lot more of the load, while Charlie had teammates that carried the load for him. Individual stats wise, it doesn't really seem to add up.
I think the answer is simple and relates to two things I previously mentioned - Salary and Record. Charlie got a huge contract just before the start of his third season, and a lot of people scratched their heads, and suddenly Charlie was no longer the Golden Boy - they wanted production to match his salary. The Lions went 9-7 and not too many people grumbled as they were grumbling more about the Paul Edinger FG that knocked the Lions out of the playoffs. The following season, most people thought he got the shaft by the M&M boys and got run out of town. As such, he is remembered by most Lions fans in a positive light.
Joey on the other hand was the 3rd pick in the draft, and signed a HUGE contract that goes along with that draft position. Never mind the situation and coaching he came into - joining a team that went 2-14 the year before, being told by his Y1 coach to throw it away or check down instead of taking the sack, playing with different WR's in seemingly every game (the only WR to play in all 16 games in a single one of Joey's seasons was Bill Schroeder in Joey's Y2 - think about that), and receivers who consistently drop the ball. Joey's fat contract means that the fans expect results, irregardless of the situation the player was thrust into.
And results in Detroit are centered around one thing - Wins.
Even if Joey and the Lions win 12 games this year, there will still be people calling for his head. It will take a minimum of two 10+ win seasons before the boo-birds would begin to die down - which would not suprisingly be when Joey's career W-L record would start to get back near .500. I'm expecting it to happen as I think that finally Joey will have a team around him this season for the entire season - something he hasn't had since he's been here. If this happens, and Joey's stats plateau while the team wins games, Joey will still take some criticism, but it will definitely be much less. Winning cures all ailments - even the perception of how good a QB is.
Monday, May 23, 2005
Lions top 20 Players
This is an interesting concept - ranking the Lions top 20 players. I did one last year even if I didn't blog it, so this year, I'm blogging this one to put it on the record. My rankings from last year's top 10 are in ()'s...
1 S. Rogers (2) - Best in the league at his position.
2 K. Jones (7) - Could average 10 ypc with this O around him this year
3 D. Bly (4) - Hobbled through half the season and still made the Pro Bowl
4 C. Rogers (1) - PLEASE stay healthy... Monster season if he does
5 B. Bailey (3) - Lions would have won 3 more games had he played last season - think covering the TE's...
6 R. Williams (6) - As good as he was at times, the unexplained drops concerned me
7 D. Woody (5) - Drop has more to do with others moving up than him slipping
8 M. Williams - Was a man among boys when playing against the best in the nation at USC - could climb higher fast
9 J. Harrington (8 ) - my prediction: He WILL silence his critics this year - including me
10 E. Holmes - Showed me a lot more than I was led to believe prior to last season
11 M. Pollard - This guy is a perfect WCO TE
12 J. Hanson (9) - Sorry, I can't rate a special teamer ahead of those other guys
13 E. Drummond - Or another special teamer
14 K. Kennedy - I'll keep my fingers crossed that his big hits change the way receivers run near him
15 J. Hall - Do that again and I won't believe it was a fluke
16 D. Raiola - The second half of last year had better be the rule from now on, not the exception
17 T. Lehman - At least he's fast cause he was out of position a LOT and had to scramble to get back in position
18 F. Bryant (10) - This is a gift - He should be aobut 6 spots higher if he's not hurt
19 J. Backus - His game had better improve significantly if he wants to stay in town after this season
20 S. Cody - Welcome to the bigs, rook. Please move WAY up this list before midseason...
Hopefully everyone on this list deserves to move up a few spots be the end of the season. Anyways, it's still May, and hope still springs eternal...
1 S. Rogers (2) - Best in the league at his position.
2 K. Jones (7) - Could average 10 ypc with this O around him this year
3 D. Bly (4) - Hobbled through half the season and still made the Pro Bowl
4 C. Rogers (1) - PLEASE stay healthy... Monster season if he does
5 B. Bailey (3) - Lions would have won 3 more games had he played last season - think covering the TE's...
6 R. Williams (6) - As good as he was at times, the unexplained drops concerned me
7 D. Woody (5) - Drop has more to do with others moving up than him slipping
8 M. Williams - Was a man among boys when playing against the best in the nation at USC - could climb higher fast
9 J. Harrington (8 ) - my prediction: He WILL silence his critics this year - including me
10 E. Holmes - Showed me a lot more than I was led to believe prior to last season
11 M. Pollard - This guy is a perfect WCO TE
12 J. Hanson (9) - Sorry, I can't rate a special teamer ahead of those other guys
13 E. Drummond - Or another special teamer
14 K. Kennedy - I'll keep my fingers crossed that his big hits change the way receivers run near him
15 J. Hall - Do that again and I won't believe it was a fluke
16 D. Raiola - The second half of last year had better be the rule from now on, not the exception
17 T. Lehman - At least he's fast cause he was out of position a LOT and had to scramble to get back in position
18 F. Bryant (10) - This is a gift - He should be aobut 6 spots higher if he's not hurt
19 J. Backus - His game had better improve significantly if he wants to stay in town after this season
20 S. Cody - Welcome to the bigs, rook. Please move WAY up this list before midseason...
Hopefully everyone on this list deserves to move up a few spots be the end of the season. Anyways, it's still May, and hope still springs eternal...
Monday, May 09, 2005
Eternal Optimism
What always seems to amaze me is how many pessimists there are around Lions message boards. Tonight on my favorite message board - The Den - I saw yet another thread that predicted the demise of Joey by the end of game 5. Since I tend to be an optimist, and since I love stirring the pot, here is my reply to that crazed scenario...
-----
Dang, what a bunch of pessimists we have around here. As I tend to be rather optimistic about life in general, here is my scenario as to how things unfold...
Game 1 - Green Bay. Joey wins the starting job in training camp as he looks sharp compared to Garcia's typically dull TC performance. Against the Pack's WEAK D, at home, the Leo's come out swinging. The first play from scrimmage showcases to the entire NFL what the new Lions O is about as Joey hooks up with CRog on a 78 yard TD strike. The game is over by halftime as the Lions O cruises. Joey goes 18 of 25 for 343, 4 TD, 0 INT. KJ runs for 131 and 1 TD. CRog and Pollard both go over 100 1TD, BMW and Roy each snag a TD as well in this rout. Favre considers retiring before game 2. Lions 38, Pack 10.
Game 2 - @ Chicago. Lovie has had nightmares watching the Lions game film from week 1 as he has quickly realized that the Lions O has too many weapons to cover. He decides to risk it and blitz on every down. After the Lions start slowly with a 3 and out, followed by a pick that is returned for 6, the O gets moving. Showing a series of slants, screens and draws, The O neutralizes the Chicago blitz, and starts scoring. At will. The Bears are really wondering why they passed up on BMW as he has a Roy-like game against them, catching 10-145 with all 3 of Joey's TD tosses, and the Lions roll. Joey goes 24-33-296, 3TD, 2INT. KJ goes 26-121-1. Final - Lions 31, Bears 10
Game 3 - @ Tampa Bay. Chucky thinks his Bucs are ready for the Lions as he believes that the Bears over-blitzed, and the Pack is just horrible on D. The Bucs run a ball-control O, and eat as much clock as possible. The Lions O has it's first 'off' day, but off for this bunch is nothing like off in previous years. Tampa keeps it close by having a huge advantage in time of possession, and manages to squeak out a win despite a furious final drive that ends when Roy fumbles while trying to drag two defenders into the end zone. Joey finishes 15-22-196, 2TD, 1INT. Bucs 21, Lions 17
Game 4 - Baltimore. Billick has now seen the light as to what it takes to beat the Lions - ball control. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the team to do play a ball control game as they come into the game at -6 in turnovers. That trend continues. The Ravens D is very good and keeps the Lions O in check most of the game, surrendering only a CRog slant that he takes all the way for a 62 yard score. The Ravens O meanwhile gives up 2 Defensive TD's - Boss scoops up a J. Lewis fumble and takes it 36 yards, and Dre snares an out pattern for a 67 yard return. Joey has what will be his roughest day statistically of the season, going 18 of 33 for 205, 1 TD, 2 INT. But no one is calling for his head, save the most anti-Joey fans as the Lions win 27-3.
Game 5 - Carolina. That early season firestorm of O last happened 27 days ago, and many people think it was simply an aberration. The problem is that no one remembered to tell the kids that. For the second time in the season, the Lions score on the first play from scrimmage, this time to Roy as he leaps over one defender, snares the ball with one hand, pushes off a second defender as he's coming down, does a 360, and then skips into the end zone for a 69 yard score. The rest of the game follows a similar pattern as Joey has his biggest game as a pro - 32-37-411-5TD-0INT. All 3 WR's go for 100 1TD, KJ2 gets 1, and Bryson gets one. KJ doesn't score, but runs for 156 on 23 carries. Carolina has a hard time hanging onto the ball and the Lions cruise, 42-17
Game 6 - @ Cleveland. Ouch - the Browns come into the game 1-5, and haven't looked like they can do anything. Against the Lions, they play inspired football, as if their entire season depends on it. They jump out to a 14-0 lead off a KJ fumble. Then they try to play ball control and hang on to the lead. The Lions struggle for most of the day as the winds off Lake Erie are swirling around 35 mph. KJ has a bad day as he fumbles twice and only gets 72 yards on the ground. In the end, the Lions just have too much firepower for the Browns to contain as BMW snags 12-136 and scores 2 times and CRog takes another slant to the house. Lions 21, Browns 17
Game 7 - Chicago. The Bears didn't learn anything from their first game against the Lions. The Lions run a version of the spread offense and just have too many options for the Bears to contain. They try to play a 7 DB D for a while, hoping to slow the passing attack, and all it does is allow KJ to run for 227 and 3 TD's. Joey throws for a pedestrian 15-22-176-1TD-1INT, but it doesn't even matter as the Lions roll again. Lions 31, Bears 7
Game 8 - @ Minnesota. How ABC and ESPN wish they had the flexible schedule right now as this is the game of the week with both 7-1 teams facing off. Fortunately, the don't have the flex schedule that NBC will get in the next TV contract, because this game is over early. After a quick CRog score on yet another slant, Baby drills Pepper on the Vikes 2nd play of the game and knocks him out. Dre picks off the next 2 throws - both from Brad Johnson - scoring with one of them, and The Lions are up 21-0 with 6 minutes left in the first quarter. Garcia gets his first action of the year after Joey gets a cheap-shot late hit midway through the 3rd, and Mooch pulls him fearing of a concussion. It didn't really matter as this game was over long before that. Lions win, 45-20.
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See, as easy is it is for some of you to predict that the Lions will get routed by assuming the worst, I can assume the best and forecast an amazing season. Doesn't even take a genius to make guesses like these. Do I believe that the season will unfold the way I have laid it out? No, of course not. I'm just tired of reading all the negativity and disastrous assumptions some people seem to keep making.
But it sure would be nice to see it unfold the way I dreamt here..
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Dang, what a bunch of pessimists we have around here. As I tend to be rather optimistic about life in general, here is my scenario as to how things unfold...
Game 1 - Green Bay. Joey wins the starting job in training camp as he looks sharp compared to Garcia's typically dull TC performance. Against the Pack's WEAK D, at home, the Leo's come out swinging. The first play from scrimmage showcases to the entire NFL what the new Lions O is about as Joey hooks up with CRog on a 78 yard TD strike. The game is over by halftime as the Lions O cruises. Joey goes 18 of 25 for 343, 4 TD, 0 INT. KJ runs for 131 and 1 TD. CRog and Pollard both go over 100 1TD, BMW and Roy each snag a TD as well in this rout. Favre considers retiring before game 2. Lions 38, Pack 10.
Game 2 - @ Chicago. Lovie has had nightmares watching the Lions game film from week 1 as he has quickly realized that the Lions O has too many weapons to cover. He decides to risk it and blitz on every down. After the Lions start slowly with a 3 and out, followed by a pick that is returned for 6, the O gets moving. Showing a series of slants, screens and draws, The O neutralizes the Chicago blitz, and starts scoring. At will. The Bears are really wondering why they passed up on BMW as he has a Roy-like game against them, catching 10-145 with all 3 of Joey's TD tosses, and the Lions roll. Joey goes 24-33-296, 3TD, 2INT. KJ goes 26-121-1. Final - Lions 31, Bears 10
Game 3 - @ Tampa Bay. Chucky thinks his Bucs are ready for the Lions as he believes that the Bears over-blitzed, and the Pack is just horrible on D. The Bucs run a ball-control O, and eat as much clock as possible. The Lions O has it's first 'off' day, but off for this bunch is nothing like off in previous years. Tampa keeps it close by having a huge advantage in time of possession, and manages to squeak out a win despite a furious final drive that ends when Roy fumbles while trying to drag two defenders into the end zone. Joey finishes 15-22-196, 2TD, 1INT. Bucs 21, Lions 17
Game 4 - Baltimore. Billick has now seen the light as to what it takes to beat the Lions - ball control. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the team to do play a ball control game as they come into the game at -6 in turnovers. That trend continues. The Ravens D is very good and keeps the Lions O in check most of the game, surrendering only a CRog slant that he takes all the way for a 62 yard score. The Ravens O meanwhile gives up 2 Defensive TD's - Boss scoops up a J. Lewis fumble and takes it 36 yards, and Dre snares an out pattern for a 67 yard return. Joey has what will be his roughest day statistically of the season, going 18 of 33 for 205, 1 TD, 2 INT. But no one is calling for his head, save the most anti-Joey fans as the Lions win 27-3.
Game 5 - Carolina. That early season firestorm of O last happened 27 days ago, and many people think it was simply an aberration. The problem is that no one remembered to tell the kids that. For the second time in the season, the Lions score on the first play from scrimmage, this time to Roy as he leaps over one defender, snares the ball with one hand, pushes off a second defender as he's coming down, does a 360, and then skips into the end zone for a 69 yard score. The rest of the game follows a similar pattern as Joey has his biggest game as a pro - 32-37-411-5TD-0INT. All 3 WR's go for 100 1TD, KJ2 gets 1, and Bryson gets one. KJ doesn't score, but runs for 156 on 23 carries. Carolina has a hard time hanging onto the ball and the Lions cruise, 42-17
Game 6 - @ Cleveland. Ouch - the Browns come into the game 1-5, and haven't looked like they can do anything. Against the Lions, they play inspired football, as if their entire season depends on it. They jump out to a 14-0 lead off a KJ fumble. Then they try to play ball control and hang on to the lead. The Lions struggle for most of the day as the winds off Lake Erie are swirling around 35 mph. KJ has a bad day as he fumbles twice and only gets 72 yards on the ground. In the end, the Lions just have too much firepower for the Browns to contain as BMW snags 12-136 and scores 2 times and CRog takes another slant to the house. Lions 21, Browns 17
Game 7 - Chicago. The Bears didn't learn anything from their first game against the Lions. The Lions run a version of the spread offense and just have too many options for the Bears to contain. They try to play a 7 DB D for a while, hoping to slow the passing attack, and all it does is allow KJ to run for 227 and 3 TD's. Joey throws for a pedestrian 15-22-176-1TD-1INT, but it doesn't even matter as the Lions roll again. Lions 31, Bears 7
Game 8 - @ Minnesota. How ABC and ESPN wish they had the flexible schedule right now as this is the game of the week with both 7-1 teams facing off. Fortunately, the don't have the flex schedule that NBC will get in the next TV contract, because this game is over early. After a quick CRog score on yet another slant, Baby drills Pepper on the Vikes 2nd play of the game and knocks him out. Dre picks off the next 2 throws - both from Brad Johnson - scoring with one of them, and The Lions are up 21-0 with 6 minutes left in the first quarter. Garcia gets his first action of the year after Joey gets a cheap-shot late hit midway through the 3rd, and Mooch pulls him fearing of a concussion. It didn't really matter as this game was over long before that. Lions win, 45-20.
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See, as easy is it is for some of you to predict that the Lions will get routed by assuming the worst, I can assume the best and forecast an amazing season. Doesn't even take a genius to make guesses like these. Do I believe that the season will unfold the way I have laid it out? No, of course not. I'm just tired of reading all the negativity and disastrous assumptions some people seem to keep making.
But it sure would be nice to see it unfold the way I dreamt here..
Sunday, April 24, 2005
I'll take a pack of Trojans...
Well, it's been a while since I posted, but not because I've been silent. I've just been too busy to actively post everything I've been thinking about the Leo's. Well after the first day of the draft, here are my thoughts...
I was in my car in the drive thru at Taco Bell when the pick was made. Within about 15 seconds, my Cell rang - it was my brother and our conversation went something like this (my recollection of the conversation at least, not the actual words)...
Me: "HOLY F$%#!" (not even hello...)
Him: "I'm SHOCKED! I can't even describe it"
Me: "One second - I'll take 2 chili-cheese burritos and a large Dr. Pepper. - How the H#!! are teams going to cover these guys?"
Him: "S#!%, this team has more weapons than even the 'greatest show on turf' Rams!"
Me: "no kidding. I dang near drove into the speaker when I heard that pick"
Him: "What is the media saying about it there?" (He's in Chicago)
Me: "Well, some seem about as shocked and happy as we are, and some, well..." - as Baligian goes off on M&M "... Some think M&M are trying to put together a Fantasy Football team"
Him: "Hmmm... 3 STUD WR's, we pick up Kevin Johnson - best hands in the NFL, pick up Pollard, finally a STUD TE, and now how are teams going to put more than 7 in the box to stop KJ? D!@# is this gonna be a fun team to watch"
Me: "No Kidding. I'll call you when I finish my burritos".
And that pretty much sums it up in a nutshell. We now have enough weapons that there is almost NO WAY that all of them could get hurt at the same time so that we have to start a 75% healthy WR and two kids from the practice squad in week 15.
Quick note to anyone questioning the pick - What position did we really NEED a starter at going into this draft? Maybe an upgrade at DE? An upgrade at FS? Sure, those were both areas we could improve in. But the real question - was there anyone at either of those positions worth drafting at #10? Nope - didn't think so. As much as I liked David Pollack, he wasn't worth a #10 pick. And if you have a choice between Mike Williams and Derrick Johnson, you have to go with BMW. Again, it's not an indictment of DJ, it's just that BMW is that dang good.
So Millen turned down a possible upgrade at OLB - even though we have 2 pretty good ones there already in Boss and Teddy (and no, Teddy did not look good in the middle last year) to pick up a WR that dang near everyone had going higher than we picked him at. I mean seriously, when all the experts can find to rip on you about is that you ran a 'slow' 4.55-40, that you haven't played football in 15 months, and that you will take up too much cap space at one position, they're really stretching for things to say bad.
Sorry 'experts', this pick just made this offense a matchup nightmare for every defensive coordinator in the league. You now have a nickle back covering either Roy, CRog or BMW, and only 7 in the box to try to slow down KJ. You put 8 in, and you have no help for the WR's. It's a nightmare situation for every D-Coord they will face.
Dang this team is going to be FUN to watch...
I was in my car in the drive thru at Taco Bell when the pick was made. Within about 15 seconds, my Cell rang - it was my brother and our conversation went something like this (my recollection of the conversation at least, not the actual words)...
Me: "HOLY F$%#!" (not even hello...)
Him: "I'm SHOCKED! I can't even describe it"
Me: "One second - I'll take 2 chili-cheese burritos and a large Dr. Pepper. - How the H#!! are teams going to cover these guys?"
Him: "S#!%, this team has more weapons than even the 'greatest show on turf' Rams!"
Me: "no kidding. I dang near drove into the speaker when I heard that pick"
Him: "What is the media saying about it there?" (He's in Chicago)
Me: "Well, some seem about as shocked and happy as we are, and some, well..." - as Baligian goes off on M&M "... Some think M&M are trying to put together a Fantasy Football team"
Him: "Hmmm... 3 STUD WR's, we pick up Kevin Johnson - best hands in the NFL, pick up Pollard, finally a STUD TE, and now how are teams going to put more than 7 in the box to stop KJ? D!@# is this gonna be a fun team to watch"
Me: "No Kidding. I'll call you when I finish my burritos".
And that pretty much sums it up in a nutshell. We now have enough weapons that there is almost NO WAY that all of them could get hurt at the same time so that we have to start a 75% healthy WR and two kids from the practice squad in week 15.
Quick note to anyone questioning the pick - What position did we really NEED a starter at going into this draft? Maybe an upgrade at DE? An upgrade at FS? Sure, those were both areas we could improve in. But the real question - was there anyone at either of those positions worth drafting at #10? Nope - didn't think so. As much as I liked David Pollack, he wasn't worth a #10 pick. And if you have a choice between Mike Williams and Derrick Johnson, you have to go with BMW. Again, it's not an indictment of DJ, it's just that BMW is that dang good.
So Millen turned down a possible upgrade at OLB - even though we have 2 pretty good ones there already in Boss and Teddy (and no, Teddy did not look good in the middle last year) to pick up a WR that dang near everyone had going higher than we picked him at. I mean seriously, when all the experts can find to rip on you about is that you ran a 'slow' 4.55-40, that you haven't played football in 15 months, and that you will take up too much cap space at one position, they're really stretching for things to say bad.
Sorry 'experts', this pick just made this offense a matchup nightmare for every defensive coordinator in the league. You now have a nickle back covering either Roy, CRog or BMW, and only 7 in the box to try to slow down KJ. You put 8 in, and you have no help for the WR's. It's a nightmare situation for every D-Coord they will face.
Dang this team is going to be FUN to watch...
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