Old Stuff - How close are we?

The final old stuff Post I'll add tonight is my thoughts back before the end of last season about how close the Lions are to actually being competitive in the NFL. Based on this year's offseason moves, we hit about every single point I made in this post to a tee...

Originally posted on M-Live 12-15-03
Question for the night - anything to get away from the constant Millen - Morton talk. How close are the Lions to being 1) respectable, 2) the Playoffs, and 3) the Super Bowl? Here's my opinion...

1) Respectability - closer than most people think. On offense, a FA OG or two, and a FA #2 WR will be enough to turn this O completely around. I'm not jumping on the Pinner bandwagon just yet, just remembering that Jimmy Stewart ran for 1000 last year, and hasn't played this year. True, he's not an "ideal" WCO RB, but adding his running threat, a WR who can actually catch the ball, and a Guard who doesn't get blown off the line every play would be a HUGE addition to the Offense. CRog is back too, so it could pretty easily turn into a really good offense next year. A good offense is enough to make this team respectable.

2) Playoffs - To get there, the defense needs help. Again, this might not be as far off as some think. Our two weak spots could also be addressed this offseason - a SS in the draft in the form of Sean Taylor, and a FA CB (there are too many good ones to list this year). An OLB to replace Green would be a nice upgrade as well, as would finding a replacement for Robert Porcher. Again, all possible in the offseason this year.

3) Super Bowl contender - a bit further off, but still possible. This would more depend on the development of some players already here - Joey, CRog, Boss - and one of the most overlooked stats in the league, staying healthy. There are two factors in the NFL that determine a surprising number of teams in the playoffs and super bowls - Turnover margin and team health. Look back at previous Super Bowl winners and you'll see very few players on IR. You'll almost always see big positive numbers for turnovers. There is a little more luck involved to get these two things, but the recent Super Bowl teams seem to all have these things going for them. When they get hit by the injury bug or start committing turnovers the following year, it spells disaster - See Baltimore 2001, New England 2002, Tampa Bay and Oakland 2003, etc...

So there you have it, I could see a marked improvement next season with a few tweaks to the lineup. A few things in the offseason will determine how realistic this is. Will there be a new GM and new team direction because of it? How effective will we be in getting the FA's we need? Will we get the players we need in the draft? It's entirely possible that management messes it up and we're just an 8-8 team. But it's not so far off to think it can't be done. I'll keep my fingers crossed...