Sunday, September 26, 2004

O-Line Troubles

I originally posted this on The Den on September 20, and this was two separate posts that I've combined into one. It spells out some specific problems I've noticed with the O-Line for the Lions...

ESPN ran a story on SportsCenter about the 2-0 and 0-2 teams - who's a fraud, and who's a choker (my terms, not theirs). Sean Salisbury listed the Lions as his overachievers, but he actually had some decent things to say about them - Nice start, but they're probably a year away. He stressed that without CRog, that R.O.Y. and KJ have to be huge, but that they are rooks, and that so far the running game hadn't solidified. He then followed that up by saying that KJ showed him something special on a few of his runs. Not too bad.

What caught my attention was the 4 running plays of KJ and Toose they showed in the highlights, to show the deficiencies of our running game. On the 4 plays, KJ and Toose gained 0, 0, 1, and -3 yards. I kept hitting the TiVo and looking at what happened, and it was pretty much the same thing I have been seeing from our O-Line the last few seasons - Someone misses their blocking assignment and gets an easy, early shot on our RB. The same thing happened last year, and resulted in our league-worst rushing attack.

What was more frustrating was that in the four plays, I saw Backus, Raiola, Woody, and McDougle all miss assignments or not finish their block, causing the bad running play. If it was a single guy, I would know where to lay my frustration, but when it's 4 different guys, then the only thing I can chalk it up to is that they haven't jelled. And perhaps the most amazing thing was the guy who didn't blow his assignment on any of those plays was Loverne. Go figure.

What I did see was this - On the first play - KJ's first carry of the game, no less - Raiola and Woody double-teamed the NT, but left the MLB open for a straight shot through the hole to KJ. Someone missed the assignment - typically the center on that type of play - and KJ gets met in the hole with nowhere to go for no gain. If Raiola engages the MLB, KJ gets an easy 7 yards.

Second play, another problem. Toose goes off left tackle, and Backus doesn't finish off his block, allowing the DE to jump back into the play and hit Toose for no gain. If Backus finishes the block, Toose goes for an easy 6 yards.

Third play, another unfinished block, this time by McDougle. KJ going off right tackle, McDougle tries to bull his man over, and misses; the DE then meets KJ in the hole for a 1 yard gain. If McDougle finishes that block, KJ has 5 yards before anyone can touch him.

Fourth play, this time it's Woody who's at fault. Play is designed to go off tackle to Backus side, Woody pulls to lead KJ. Woody is late getting to the block, and the OLB gets KJ as he's searching for an opening, trying to cut back. This one might be why there is a concern over Woody's weight - if he's lighter, he gets there and KJ gets sprung for 8-10 yards.

These are all problems that have plagued our OL for years, and they won't get fixed overnight. Hopefully Pat Morris will get them fixed soon, because KJ won't put up HUGE numbers until they are fixed. KJ isn't Barry, and he can't make defenders miss when he's at a stop. Only Barry could do that. But what KJ can do that Barry couldn't is bust tackles (of course Barry usually just maked the defender miss, so he didn't have to bust the tackle). He has the jets the take it to the house if he can get sprung.

With all that being said, the plays where KJ had his big gainers were showcases of the ability he has. I haven't seen the crowd get on their feet for a RB like that since Barry was in our backfield. He is electric, and we can only hope we get our O-Line woes fixed soon...
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Coyote... I point at the O-Line for problems because

A) It's a pattern that has been seen consistently around here for a long time - poor O-Line play
B) What the coaches say and what film study can tell us are usually two very different things.
C) I saw the plays in person and suspected something was wrong, then I got the chance to break them down using TiVo.
D) It won't matter who our RB is if we don't get good consistent O-Line play.

I'm not pointing out the flaws here to sour the mood, simply because I saw them. And trust me, if I saw them, the Lions coaching staff surely saw them as well. This is the entire point of breaking down game film - to learn what you do well, what you don't do so well, and then try to correct the mistakes.

When I went back to the Bears TiVo, yes, I did see the Bears make several plays, and I wasn't as hard on the Line in that game. But in this game, the Texans do not have a good D-line. And the mistakes I pointed out were glaring mistakes on those plays. For that reason, I felt it necessary to break down the individual plays and highlight what I saw.

Again, the only real concern I had coming out of that film study was that Woody seemed slow when pulling. The other mistakes were technique and communication related - correctable things. But if Woody can't pull and hit the LB before KJ gets there (and no, he didn't chip the LB, he never got there), then the Lions will probably have to reconsider some of the running plays we use. Sweeps, Counters and Traps rely on a pulling guard to get out in front and take out a defender to spring the play. If the guard can't get there, the play is doomed from the beginning. That is why I must raise caution when I see that Woody wasn't out in front of the play.

Yes, it was a good game. Yes, we saw some great things from our rookies. Yes, we can enjoy the wins. But if we don't correct these mistakes, it could mean the difference between 9 wins and 7 wins...

Sunday, September 19, 2004

Lions vs Texans - down at the game...

Well, yesterday I stumbled on a link that mentioned that there were tickets available to the Lions game, so I quick scooped up some tickets and headed down to the field. It's always fun to see a game in person. The only downfall is that my Wife decided that she wanted to watch something else, so my TiVo wasn't functioning for the game. No replays, no down-n-dirty analysis, no reliving the good feelings. Just have to suck it up and go from my memory while at the game. So... Here are my impressions of what I saw at the game today. I came away with a few things that I saw that I really liked...

Fernando - the dude is a SHUT-DOWN corner. He played flat-out AWESOME today. It seemed like every time they came to his side of the field he made a play. he just looked fantastic...

KJ - Enough already - get the man 20 carries. There were at least 4 runs today that had the entire crowd standing on our feet. I haven't felt like that watching a game since #20 was lacing em up for us.

Roy - Thank god we got him in the draft. Joey needed a #1 receiver. CRog is still a #1 next year, but so is Roy. These two should strike genuine FEAR into our opponents next year.

Joey - I think Joey's starting to get used to all his new toys. It looks like this year could be really fun to watch him silence his critics...

SRog - ProBowl Starter. Mark it down. Dude must still be pissed that the Sporting News didn't have him in it's list of the top 100 players this year. He wants to be top 10 next year, and at this pace, he may be. He's dang near unstoppable.

Eddie - OK, I can handle you returning kicks for us. Sorry I wanted the team to cut you. My bad...

With all that good stuff, there are some negatives. Here goes...

- Our outside LB's need to learn FAST where they are supposed to be. There is no way that Dom Davis should get nearly 200 total yards on us. His success was more an indictment of our LB's than it was of him being great...

- Still too many busted up plays by the interior of the O-Line. I couldn't tell at the stadium who was to blame, but I do know that the Texans down linemen shouldn't be getting into the backfield like that. KJ and Pinner each got hit in the backfield several times...

- I'm a bit miffed at the next to last drive - 2 incompletes, then a draw play on 3rd and 10 from the 18? With how Joey was doing prior to that, you'd think we'd at least take one more shot at a first down...

- I'm not sure if it was play calling or Joey being nervous in the first half, but the offense was VERY tentative out there. Almost like they were afraid to try anything other than a basic play. Thank god it got a lot better in the second half.

But in the end, we are 2-0, in first place (maybe alone after Monday night), and have a chance for a statement game next week vs. Philly. If Philly comes in 2-0 and we beat them, people will HAVE to respect the Lions. I surely don't want to see them drop 3 places to 28th in a power poll after a win like I did this week in the Fox Sports NFL Power Poll after week 1...

Dang it feels good to be 2-0..

Thursday, September 16, 2004

Lions vs Bears breakdown

In reviewing the first game, I saw three things that need to be corrected if the Lions expect to have a good season. And unfortunately, they seem to be the same three things that plagued the team last year - drops, bad line play, and unimaginative play calling. Allow me to explain...

1 - Drops. For most of the game, I thought I was watching a bad repeat of last year on Offense. Way too many dropped EASY passes - I counted 5 BAD drops, 3 by Hakim. Joey was 14 of 26 - barely over 50%. Convert 3 of those to completions, and he's 17 of 26 - 65%. If he had completed 65% of his passes, I doubt that anyone here would be complaining about how Joey played. Especially since 4 of the 5 drops would have converted 3rd downs.

2 - O-Line. Where we need improvement from game one to game two most is on the O-Line. Backus got beat badly on the sack. Loverne and Woody didn't seem to have any push on the Bears D-line, and Raiola had a bad game. In all honesty, in most games if you look at how our O-Line plays, it dictates exactly how the game goes - save the drops.

3 - Play Calling. I was also disappointed in the play calling - way too predictable. When I see KJ getting hit in the backfield just after taking the handoff, I get bad Barry flashbacks - except Barry could make a guy miss. The reason he was getting hit was bad play calling - if a team is going to Blitz like that, you have to make them pay - draws, play action, screens, slants. Those are all staples of the WCO, and yet we were so unimaginative that the Bears seemed to know exactly which way we were coming on every play.

With all that said, we really didn't have that bad of a game. The first two field goals should both have been touchdowns. The 3rd down conversion percentage was directly a result of the items I have already mentioned - It's hard to convert 3rd and 8 for any team, and the drops don't help. We got to 3rd and 8 by obvious play calling and poor O-line play. The defense played well enough to keep us in the game. I HOPE we'll see more blitzing this week, but somehow I doubt it. Now on to my player observations...

Roy - looked a heck of a lot more comfortable out there than he did in the pre-season. He still needs to adjust to the Pro game (that play he got chucked off at the goal line should have been called pass interference), but all in all not a bad game.

CRog - damn that sucks. I was rooting for him so hard, and figured he would have a monster year. Instead his season lasted 3 plays. That new plate in his shoulder had better work...

SRog - Here's your pro-bowl ticket. Let me be the first to say it - this guy is the best DT in the league. He's a one man wrecking crew out there.

KJ - We saw glimpses, hope to see more of it this week. I think we will. Can't wait for you to break a long one and silence everyone who thinks you aren't fast...

Teddy - The great LB's all are instinctual players. Based on one game, I see great things ahead...

Dre - That's why you shouldn't celebrate a big hit. The hit was awesome, but I hate to lose you for 2 games beacuse you bounced up funny from tatooing that guy.

Joey - My only words of advice - throw to Tai and Roy, and ignore Az if you want to move the ball downfield. Trust me, you'll save the entire city of Detroit a lot of Rolaids if you stop throwing it in the direction of Az...

Toose - Just look at what Dom Rhodes does in Indy. You can be that kind of player for the Lions, which isn't bad. Rhodes had a 1000 yard season when Edge went down...

Fernando - Glad to have you. Nice to know that other teams don't throw at you because you guard receivers like a blanket. Now if you would just CATCH the dang INT...

Bracy - I neve knew you had that in you. Thanks. And here's some Oxygen - you must still be tired.

With that, here's looking ahead at Week 2. I wil say that with the injuries we suffered, I may have to drop my season prediction by a game or two. I had been thinking 11-5, but now I'm thinking 9-7 feels right...

Saturday, September 11, 2004

Old Stuff - How close are we?

The final old stuff Post I'll add tonight is my thoughts back before the end of last season about how close the Lions are to actually being competitive in the NFL. Based on this year's offseason moves, we hit about every single point I made in this post to a tee...

Originally posted on M-Live 12-15-03
Question for the night - anything to get away from the constant Millen - Morton talk. How close are the Lions to being 1) respectable, 2) the Playoffs, and 3) the Super Bowl? Here's my opinion...

1) Respectability - closer than most people think. On offense, a FA OG or two, and a FA #2 WR will be enough to turn this O completely around. I'm not jumping on the Pinner bandwagon just yet, just remembering that Jimmy Stewart ran for 1000 last year, and hasn't played this year. True, he's not an "ideal" WCO RB, but adding his running threat, a WR who can actually catch the ball, and a Guard who doesn't get blown off the line every play would be a HUGE addition to the Offense. CRog is back too, so it could pretty easily turn into a really good offense next year. A good offense is enough to make this team respectable.

2) Playoffs - To get there, the defense needs help. Again, this might not be as far off as some think. Our two weak spots could also be addressed this offseason - a SS in the draft in the form of Sean Taylor, and a FA CB (there are too many good ones to list this year). An OLB to replace Green would be a nice upgrade as well, as would finding a replacement for Robert Porcher. Again, all possible in the offseason this year.

3) Super Bowl contender - a bit further off, but still possible. This would more depend on the development of some players already here - Joey, CRog, Boss - and one of the most overlooked stats in the league, staying healthy. There are two factors in the NFL that determine a surprising number of teams in the playoffs and super bowls - Turnover margin and team health. Look back at previous Super Bowl winners and you'll see very few players on IR. You'll almost always see big positive numbers for turnovers. There is a little more luck involved to get these two things, but the recent Super Bowl teams seem to all have these things going for them. When they get hit by the injury bug or start committing turnovers the following year, it spells disaster - See Baltimore 2001, New England 2002, Tampa Bay and Oakland 2003, etc...

So there you have it, I could see a marked improvement next season with a few tweaks to the lineup. A few things in the offseason will determine how realistic this is. Will there be a new GM and new team direction because of it? How effective will we be in getting the FA's we need? Will we get the players we need in the draft? It's entirely possible that management messes it up and we're just an 8-8 team. But it's not so far off to think it can't be done. I'll keep my fingers crossed...

Old Stuff - What went Wrong...

Here's another older analysis I wrote - what went wrong with the Lions to cause them to go only 10-38 over the last 3 years.

Originally posted on M-Live 12-15-03 (before the Rams game)
Since we have some bozo's in this forum who foolishly want to believe that the entire predicament the Lions are in is the result of Matt Millen's bad decisions - and yes, he has made a few - It's time to analyze exactly what has caused this team to win a total of 9 games the last 3 years. Here is my assesment.

1) The core players on the 9-7 2000 Lions were OLD. Of the starters on that team, at last count only 5 were still in the league. Not entirely unusual, but it's the first part of the equation. Most teams have younger players ready to come in and take over for those players. Teams count on at least 3 starters from each draft in the 3rd year after the draft. 4-9 year veterans should account for 2/3 of the starters on a given team. But...

2) Bobby Ross drafted HORRBILY. His 5 drafts included 7 first round picks, 5 second round picks, and 3 3rd round picks. The sum total of his drafting - 2 starters in Detroit, 2.5 starters elsewhere, 4 others on NFL rosters, but not starting. Only 1 retired due to injury - Reggie Brown. Only 2 later round picks have had any NFL impact of any sort. If necessary, I can repost the detail of the Bobby Lost drafts, but they effectively put the Lions in a position little better than an expansion team, due to the lack of talent.

3) Bad Salary cap moves by Boss Ross - Did you know that the Lions are still being penalized for Charlie Batch and Herman Moore on our Salary cap? In total, the Lions have over 11 Million counting against this years cap for players no longer with the team. That's the type of sal cap misery that the 49ers and Cowboys went through after their SB runs. Only problem was that the Lions never even sniffed the Super Bowl and had to pay the cap misery. The Lions have had to endure this and will still have a taste of it next year if Luther Elliss, Robert Porcher and James Stewart don't come back.

4) Millen's Free Agent Moves - We FINALLY can talk about the bad moves Millen has made. In fairness he has committed a lot of blunders because he didn't understand how to do things right - especially the first two years. I think everyone here would take Johnny Morton and Jeff Hartings back in a second. We'd all prefer to forget Bill Schroeder and Brenden Stai. Az Hakim has been average, for a superstar's salary. Dan Wilkinson has been a good signing. Dre Bly has been spectacular. He’s done a good job bringing in guys week after week this year as players have gone down at an alarming rate. Overall, he's made more mistakes than successes in free agency, but it looks like he's getting better.

That gets us to where we are today. A lot of things all added up to make this team go therough the garbage we've been through the last few years. Hopefully Millen has learned from his mistakes and makes the moves in this offseason we want him to make. I tend to look at his record each year and see great improvement in his acquisitions, and I think he can and will make the right moves this offseason. But I am keeping my fingers crossed, just in case...

Old Stuff - The Boss Ross Disaster

I haven't posted in a while, so I thought it wouldn't hurt to add a few of my older analysis of the Lions to the blog. Here is my post on how badly Bobby Ross hurt the Lions and how he really is to blame for the 10-38 record...

Originally posted on M-Live Lions message board 12/10/03
I've done a lot of thinking about why this team has had to endure three years of utter futility, and I see three primary reasons. The first is the complete lack of NFL Players from our drafts during the Bobby Ross era. It is an accpeted truth in the NFL that you draft 1st rounder to be immediate starters, 2nd rounders to soon be starters, and 3rd rounders to be eventual starters. Later rounds are usually drafted to provide depth and an occasional starter. Usually the players drafted 3-8 years back form the core of a team, with a few older vets, and a few younger bucks comprising the starters on a particular team.

With that in mind, I went back and looked at the Lions 1st through 3rd round draft choices and where they are now during the Bobby Ross years. When I looked at the Lions draft history, I was amazed at how completely inept the Lions were during Bobby Ross' tenure as Coach. Here is a listing of Boss Ross' draft history with the Lions, and how it has killed this team today...

1996
1a- Reggie Brown - Neck Injury, out of football
1b - Jeff Hartings - Starting Center for Pittsburgh, wanted out of Detroit BAD
3 - Ryan Stewart - out of football, never made impact.

1997
1 - Bryant Westbrook - IR for Packers - was dramatically improving at CB until achilles tendon tore, never the same since.
2a - Juan Roque - out of football - BUST!
2b - Kevin Abrams - out of football, probably still injured too.

1998
1 - Terry Fair - out of football
2a - Germane Crowell - out of football
2b - Charlie Batch - backup QB for Steelers
7 - Chris Liewinski - Starting for Vikings - first of only 2 late round picks of Ross Era to pan out anywhere...

1999
1a - Chris Claiborne - Starting MLB for Vikings - OK player, but overrated
1b - Aaron Gibson - Part-time starting RT for Bears - cut by 3 teams before sticking with Chicago this season.
3 - Jared DeVries - Backup DT for Lions
6- Clint Kriewaldt - backup LB for Pittsburgh - only other late round pick to do anything in the league...

2000
1 - Stockar McDougle - Starting RT for Lions - took a while, but finally showing some of the promise a 1st rounder is supposed to have.
2 - Barrett Green - Starting WLB for Lions - frustrates me with lack of tackling, but good motor and speed.
3 - Reuben Droughns - backup RB for Denver

So there you have it. 5 years of misses and broken hopes. The totals - 15 1-3 round picks, 2 starters in Detroit, 2.5 starters elsewhere, 4 others on NFL rosters. Only 1 retired due to injury - Reggie Brown. Only 2 later round picks having any NFL impact of any sort. That's a horrible draft record in anyone's book. And in itself could explain why the Lions have been so bad the last three years. But there is more...