Breaking Down Joey

It's one of the most common discussions heard on every message board - What's the deal with Joey? So, after following a few threads, I picked up on a few comments and decided to do a little homework. In one segment, I read a comment that "All the Lions really need is a 'game manager' who can post stats like this:

60% completions, 3000 yards, 20 td, 12 int, 80 rating.

With that in mind, I took a look at Joey's stats this year. His final season stat line goes like this:

188/330, 2021 yards, 12 TD, 12 INT, 57%, 72.0 Rating

To try to get a feel for how these stats would have turned out if he played the entire season, I decided to increase the totals by the same percentage, assuming he threw 500 passes which is close to the average of 2003-04 where he played 16 games. Multiplying by 1.515 (500/330) gives us this stat line:

285/500 3048 yards, 18 TD, 18 INT, 57%, 72.0 Rating.

It's not that far off from where that poster had indicated that they want our QB to be. 15 more completions and it's 60%. If the TD's go up by 2, and the INT's down by 2, it's close to the 80 rating. Over the course of an entire season, Joey was pretty close to those numbers.

Where it gets interesting, and what will cause a lot of head scratching is projecting 16 games based on what he did before and after the benchings. I quick dropped his stats into a spreadsheet, and projected them out. Here are the projected numbers, based on a typical 500 attempt season:

Before Initial Benching (GB, @CHI, @TB, BAL, CAR)
Actual 76/143 798 Yards, 4 TD, 8 INT
Projected 266/500 2790 yards, 14 TD, 28 INT, 53.1%, 55.6 Rating

Clearly not a good year based on these numbers. I have mentioned in many of my other posts that I believed Joey played better than the numbers indicated in most of these games, but that's another discussion entirely. The numbers were abysmal, and absent any other info, deserving of a benching.

Mid-Year, between Benchings (@MIN, ARI, @ DAL, ATL)
Actual 72/117 724 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT
Projected 308/500 3094 yards, 17 TD, 13 INT, 61.5%, 79.7 Rating

When people said they thought that the benching did Joey good, they weren't kidding. The numbers clearly were better, coming very close to what people think the Lions need out of a QB. Still not great, but sufficient.

Final 3 games (CIN, @NO, @PIT)
Actual 40/70 499 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Projected 286/500 3564 yards, 29 TD, 7 INT, 57.1%, 93.0 Rating

Over the last three games, Joey looked a LOT better. You can forgive the completion percentage when you get the yardage and TD/INT ratios like those ones. These are the type of stats that most people expected to see from JH when he was drafted. People argued (correctly) that it appeared that the benching did good things for Joey. The second benching seemed to do even more good.

Since the final three games are really about 2 and 1/4 games, why not take a look at the sum total of everything after the first benching:

Everything after Initial Benching (@MIN, ARI, @DAL, ATL, CIN, @NO, @PIT)
Actual 112/187 1223 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
Projected 299/500 3270 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT, 59.9%, 84.0 Rating

Now those are QB numbers that I'm sure everyone in Detroit could live with. Good, solid QB play. But still, there are people who would argue those stats are skewed by the 3 TD game against Pittsburgh. So... Here goes...

Everything after initial benching, minus Pittsburgh (@MIN, ARI, @DAL, ATL, CIN, @NO)
Actual 95/154 1011 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT
Projected 308/500 3282 yards, 16 TD, 13 INT, 61.7%, 80.6 Rating

3.4 QB rating points is some, but not a ton. But the same game also knocked his completion percentage down by almost 2%. I think most people could live with those kind of numbers.

Now to be fair with Joey, if we knock out the Pittsburgh game for the second half numbers, what about knocking out the Bears game from the first half numbers? Here goes...

Before Initial Benching, Minus Bears (GB, @TB, BAL, CAR)
Actual 57/106 602 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT
Projected 269/500 2840 yards, 14 TD, 14 INT, 53.8%, 68.2 Rating

Not as bad as it initially looked, but not great. Actually, it's pretty close to his full year numbers.

And this is the quandary that the Lions and Millen face heading into the offseason. Which QB are they going to get going forward from here? The guy before the benching, or the guy after the benching. Who the heck knows...