Since I've been in Florida a few weeks with the family, I've missed seeing the last two Lions games at all. So it's good that I have no recollection of the Green Bay horror fest, but it's bad that I have no recollection of the Giant's butt-kicking we administered. So today's game was the first game I've seen since the Atlanta game. And lets just say I wasn't impressed...
Well, another Lions game, another wild swing in performance. This time, it was the Defense that swung wildly to the dark side. As I watched this train wreck of a game progress, I kept asking myself "When the heck are we gonna get the D off the field?" OK, simple grades...
Offense - B-. Joey looked good, even without R.O.Y. KJ Looked good while he was getting the rock. Then we quit running. I don't know why, but we did. Without R.O.Y., the receivers on this team look an awful lot like the receivers we had last year, minus BS. R.O.Y., I hope that ankles heals completely this week...
Defense - C-. Yes, we had 3 turnovers, including one for a score. But how many 3rd down conversions did we give up? And who was supposed to guard Jason Witten? Shoot, we took Shockey and Crumpler out of the game against the Giants and Falcons, but we couldn't stop Witten? Ouch. The Boys were 9-15 on 3rd down. They punted twice all day. If not for the turnovers, this would be a D-...
Special Teams - E. Gave up big returns. No big returns for us. Stupid penalties killed a few decent returns. This area flunked today...
Coaching - D-. What the heck was Juaron thinking? How could we not account for Witten after he caught 5 passes on the first Drive? 10 penalties? Giving up on running the ball? This was not pretty...
With all that, I'm not sure what we really can come away from this game with that is positive. Maybe it's that Joey still did fine even when his main weapon was out. Maybe that Kircus finally caught a TD. Maybe it's that KJ seemed a bit more decisive in his running. OK, Bly making two picks is definitely a positive. But shoot, this was not a good game for us. Even with the officiating blunders (and yes, it was bad today), we still should have looked better against the Cowboys. But we just couldn't get the D off the field.
One item of note - Eddie George did not kill us today as some people may think. Look at his stats - 31 carries for 99 yards. That's right around his season average for yards per carry of 3.2. What killed us was the 3rd down conversions and stupid penalties that kept drives alive. That was a hard game to watch...
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Spanking the dirty bird
Dang, I was amazed at what I saw during that game. Who were those guys out there? Surely not our beloved Honolulu Blue and Silver. But there they were, making Mike Vick look like a QB playing in only his 5th game in the WCO. Oh yeah, I forgot – he is. Guess with all the hyperbole around him that it was completely lost in the fact that if you can stop him from running that he's still a very inexperienced QB in that offense.
There were a lot of good things to see in that game, and a few bad ones. I'll list the bad first, since it's a shorter list for once…
1) R.O.Y. got hurt. This is not good. Thankfully, it appears he may not miss a game, even if he is slowed against Green Bay. The offense looked a little lost without him in there.
2) The O-Line again wasn't getting the kind of push I'd expect. If I was an opposing D-Coordinator, I'd put my fastest pass rushing end on Backus, stunt in the middle, and have a field day hitting Joey. Backus got beat at least 3 times by a speed-rush move. Raiola can't seem to figure out who to block when there's any kind of a twist. That needs to improve.
That's it for the bad. It's nice to have that part of the list be that short. Now here's the good…
1) Where did that pass rush come from? And where did Alex Lewis come from? (don't answer "Wisconsin" or I'll have to slap you) Seriously, if our defense plays like that every game, we'll have an excellent chance of winning every week. All that without two of our best players in Bly and Bailey. Just to think of how good it will be when they get back…
2) Toose is a hammer in between the tackles. He looked solid going up and pushing the line to get the hard yards. Too bad he got met in the backfield so many times…
3) Joey was SHARP. 9-10 in the first half for 98 yards and a score. He cooled off in the second after R.O.Y. was hurt. Let's pray that R.O.Y. doesn't miss any time.
4) The play calling FINALLY seemed to get over being too conservative. If we hadn't had so many penalties, we likely would have scored at least 2 more times. Of course I'm not sure about the Run-pass ratio as it seemed that we ran a few too many times, but I can't complain about the results.
Well, it's time to wait for Green Bay to come in here. After the performance on Monday Night, I'm thinking that the Pack should be easy fodder. Of course in years past, that's when the Lions really stink up the joint. Hopefully R.O.Y. and KJ will be back, and we can tear up that sieve of a D for a big game. I'm keeping my fingers crossed…
There were a lot of good things to see in that game, and a few bad ones. I'll list the bad first, since it's a shorter list for once…
1) R.O.Y. got hurt. This is not good. Thankfully, it appears he may not miss a game, even if he is slowed against Green Bay. The offense looked a little lost without him in there.
2) The O-Line again wasn't getting the kind of push I'd expect. If I was an opposing D-Coordinator, I'd put my fastest pass rushing end on Backus, stunt in the middle, and have a field day hitting Joey. Backus got beat at least 3 times by a speed-rush move. Raiola can't seem to figure out who to block when there's any kind of a twist. That needs to improve.
That's it for the bad. It's nice to have that part of the list be that short. Now here's the good…
1) Where did that pass rush come from? And where did Alex Lewis come from? (don't answer "Wisconsin" or I'll have to slap you) Seriously, if our defense plays like that every game, we'll have an excellent chance of winning every week. All that without two of our best players in Bly and Bailey. Just to think of how good it will be when they get back…
2) Toose is a hammer in between the tackles. He looked solid going up and pushing the line to get the hard yards. Too bad he got met in the backfield so many times…
3) Joey was SHARP. 9-10 in the first half for 98 yards and a score. He cooled off in the second after R.O.Y. was hurt. Let's pray that R.O.Y. doesn't miss any time.
4) The play calling FINALLY seemed to get over being too conservative. If we hadn't had so many penalties, we likely would have scored at least 2 more times. Of course I'm not sure about the Run-pass ratio as it seemed that we ran a few too many times, but I can't complain about the results.
Well, it's time to wait for Green Bay to come in here. After the performance on Monday Night, I'm thinking that the Pack should be easy fodder. Of course in years past, that's when the Lions really stink up the joint. Hopefully R.O.Y. and KJ will be back, and we can tear up that sieve of a D for a big game. I'm keeping my fingers crossed…
Sunday, October 10, 2004
Most Underrated Stat - Turnover Margin
Now don't go ripping me because I haven't found a link to the stats, and I don't have them to publish here, but IMHO, Turnover margin is the most underrated stat in the NFL.
I remember seeing a stat in an article a few years ago that showed winning percentage in a game based on turnover margin.
+1 gave you a 65% chance of winning
+2 gives you 80%
+3 or more was something absurd like 93%
I'd love to see someone do the research and find those stats again.
So with that being said, The Lions are a very healthy +9 through 4 games. I looked at NFL.Com in the sortable stats section for turnover margin (it hasn't been updated with today's action yet). You can see pretty easily exactly how much TO margin means - the top 6 teams in TO margin (Giants, Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Cardinals, Lions) have a combined record before today of 16-5 and the bottom 6 teams (Dolphins, 49ers, Raiders, Redskins, Panthers, Rams) have a combined W-L of 6-17. NFL.Com Sortable Stats
I remember that the last season we sniffed the playoffs - 2000 - We were something like +19 in TO margin. The next season as we went 2-14, we were something like -27. It's pretty apparent to me that the best way to give your team a chance to win in the NFL is simply to not make as many mistakes as your opponent...
I agree with you, but maybe I didn't explain my point - You hardly ever hear any NFL talking heads talk about how the TO margin is so critical. I'd guarantee that we'll hear all kinds of analysis on all the games of this weekend, and I doubt that we'll hear it mentioned anywhere that the teams which won the turnover battle were 10-4 (or whatever it turns out to be this weekend).
I know we won't hear that on ESPN, FSN, any local papers, or on any radio show. But it's by far the best gauge of which teams are winning...
I remember seeing a stat in an article a few years ago that showed winning percentage in a game based on turnover margin.
+1 gave you a 65% chance of winning
+2 gives you 80%
+3 or more was something absurd like 93%
I'd love to see someone do the research and find those stats again.
So with that being said, The Lions are a very healthy +9 through 4 games. I looked at NFL.Com in the sortable stats section for turnover margin (it hasn't been updated with today's action yet). You can see pretty easily exactly how much TO margin means - the top 6 teams in TO margin (Giants, Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Cardinals, Lions) have a combined record before today of 16-5 and the bottom 6 teams (Dolphins, 49ers, Raiders, Redskins, Panthers, Rams) have a combined W-L of 6-17. NFL.Com Sortable Stats
I remember that the last season we sniffed the playoffs - 2000 - We were something like +19 in TO margin. The next season as we went 2-14, we were something like -27. It's pretty apparent to me that the best way to give your team a chance to win in the NFL is simply to not make as many mistakes as your opponent...
Quote: (CALionFan)
turnover differential is not an underated stat, it's the most telling number there is and your stats backed it up
I agree with you, but maybe I didn't explain my point - You hardly ever hear any NFL talking heads talk about how the TO margin is so critical. I'd guarantee that we'll hear all kinds of analysis on all the games of this weekend, and I doubt that we'll hear it mentioned anywhere that the teams which won the turnover battle were 10-4 (or whatever it turns out to be this weekend).
I know we won't hear that on ESPN, FSN, any local papers, or on any radio show. But it's by far the best gauge of which teams are winning...
Saturday, October 09, 2004
Disaster against Philly...
I finally have gotten around to posting my take on the Philly game. Watching the game at the relatives was a bit difficult as I was constantly beseiged by distractions, but I saw enough to make me queasy. Because of how long it's been since the game, I'll keep it quick...
1) When McNabb is 17 of 19 for 230 yards and 3 TD's at one point in the first half, who cares if they don't have a running game. The game was over when the Eagles went up 21-0 and looked unstoppable. 3 3rd and long conversions on a single drive can do that.
2) When it's established that we are so far down that we must throw every down to have any chance to get back into the game, it's pretty easy for a RB to gain 5 yards on a draw. We just need someone besides Williams to step up.
3) Dang did we ever need Dre. And CRog. And Boss.
4) When your front four can't get a pass rush of any sort, your secondary will get shredded. Conversely, when your front four gets a great pass rush, and you blitz every other play from every direction and constantly hit the QB, that QB WILL get rattled and gunshy, irregardless of who that QB is.
5) I was wrong on thinking that the Eagles were overrated and would be a bust team this year. I was completely wrong on the difference that TO would make - He is the entire key to their offensive improvement. I was also wrong about their D - when you get that kind of a pass rush you can lose two pro-bowl CB's and still not get shredded...
I was going to write more after I reviewed the TiVo. I decided not to, because it was pretty painful to watch. The D has problems, but I think there is more to it than just the absence of Boss and Dre'. Let's just say that right now I'm thinking that if Uncle Bob is so washed up that we keep him inactive, that we're in deep doo-doo for the rest of the year at DE...
1) When McNabb is 17 of 19 for 230 yards and 3 TD's at one point in the first half, who cares if they don't have a running game. The game was over when the Eagles went up 21-0 and looked unstoppable. 3 3rd and long conversions on a single drive can do that.
2) When it's established that we are so far down that we must throw every down to have any chance to get back into the game, it's pretty easy for a RB to gain 5 yards on a draw. We just need someone besides Williams to step up.
3) Dang did we ever need Dre. And CRog. And Boss.
4) When your front four can't get a pass rush of any sort, your secondary will get shredded. Conversely, when your front four gets a great pass rush, and you blitz every other play from every direction and constantly hit the QB, that QB WILL get rattled and gunshy, irregardless of who that QB is.
5) I was wrong on thinking that the Eagles were overrated and would be a bust team this year. I was completely wrong on the difference that TO would make - He is the entire key to their offensive improvement. I was also wrong about their D - when you get that kind of a pass rush you can lose two pro-bowl CB's and still not get shredded...
I was going to write more after I reviewed the TiVo. I decided not to, because it was pretty painful to watch. The D has problems, but I think there is more to it than just the absence of Boss and Dre'. Let's just say that right now I'm thinking that if Uncle Bob is so washed up that we keep him inactive, that we're in deep doo-doo for the rest of the year at DE...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)